After 8 rounds, the standings are as followed:
1-2. Ponomariov, Ruslan – GM 2723 UKR, Vallejo Pons, Francisco – GM 2650 ESP
6.0
3. Nakamura, Hikaru – GM 2644 USA 5.0
4. Domínguez, Leinier – GM 2638 CUB 4.5
5-6. Bruzón, Lázaro – GM 2650 CUB, Cheparinov, Ivan – GM 2625 BUL 4.0
7-8. Volokitin, Andrei – GM 2665 UKR, Karjakin, Sergey – GM 2660 UKR 3.5
9. León, Manuel – IM 2428 MEX 2.0
10. Felgaer, Rubén – GM 2607 ARG 1.5
Who will hold the golden key to the title? These are the matchups in the last round. What are your predictions?
Bruzón, Lázaro vs. Karjakin, Sergey
Domínguez, Leinier vs. León, Manuel
Felgaer, Rubén vs. Volokitin, Andrei
Vallejo Pons, Francisco vs. Ponomariov, Ruslan
Nakamura, Hikaru vs. Cheparinov, Ivan 
Chess Daily News from Susan Polgar
If either Pons or Ponomariov reveals a new brilliancy on the way to a decisive victory, it’s likely that could be hailed as the latest heir to Kasparov.
It’s not often you see co-leaders of a round robin paired in the last round.
I wouldn’t even try to guess, though I predicted Ponomariov and Vallejo 1-2 before the tournament began.
But I would expect a decisive result.
draw
In V-Pons vs. Pono:
1-0 50% V-Pons wins
1/2 40% Tie
0-1 10% Pono wins
3nd place:
Dominguez 85% to win vs. Leon;
15% to draw. lose negligible
Nak vs. Chepa
1-0 60%
1/2 25%
0-1 15%
Bruzon-Karjakin is almost a sure draw, so assume Bruzon at 4.5 is not a contender for 3rd place.
With these rough assumptions,
start with Board 1:
40% tie for first with 6.5 AND then
51%
Nak 6.0
Dominguez 5.5
+4%
Nak 5.5
Dominguez 5.0
= 55% Nak in clear 3rd
(dependend on Pons-Pono draw)
45% Nak ties with Dominguez for 3rd
60% either V-Pons or Pono wins
THEN
Nak has a 60% chance to tie for 2nd, for a composite of 36%. Sounds too high, actually. Likely I underestimated the chance of a draw on Board 1.
Jeff Sonas might do a little better here, with a more complete database – even though his math is still a little primitive (though more sophisticated than this.)
Anonymous Frank
That was a little messy.
More simply, for best hopes :
Sole first
V-Pons 50%
Pono 10%
Both tie for first 40%
Nak ties for second 40%+
Dominguez sole third 8%
Dominquez third either sole or tie 49%
Only numbers. The play’s the thing!
Anonymous Frank
Who’d have thought?
Bruzón wins vs. Karjakin
Domínguez wins vs. León
Nakamura wins vs. Cheparinov
Volokitin wins vs. Felgaer
Pons – Ponomariov tie
1-2. Ponomariov, Ruslan – GM 2723 UKR, Vallejo Pons, Francisco – GM 2650 ESP 6.5
3. Nakamura, Hikaru – GM 2644 USA 6.0
4. Domínguez, Leinier – GM 2638 CUB 5.5
5. Bruzón, Lázaro – GM 2650 CUB 5.0
6. Volokitin, Andrei – GM 2665 UKR 4.5
7. Cheparinov, Ivan – GM 2625 BUL 4.0
7-8. Karjakin, Sergey – GM 2660 UKR 3.5
9. León, Manuel – IM 2428 MEX 2.0
10. Felgaer, Rubén – GM 2607 ARG 1.5
Who’d have thought?
Bruzón wins vs. Karjakin
Domínguez wins vs. León
Nakamura wins vs. Cheparinov
Volokitin wins vs. Felgaer
Pons – Ponomariov tie
1-2. Ponomariov, Ruslan – GM 2723 UKR, Vallejo Pons, Francisco – GM 2650 ESP 6.5
3. Nakamura, Hikaru – GM 2644 USA 6.0
4. Domínguez, Leinier – GM 2638 CUB 5.5
5. Bruzón, Lázaro – GM 2650 CUB 5.0
6. Volokitin, Andrei – GM 2665 UKR 4.5
7. Cheparinov, Ivan – GM 2625 BUL 4.0
8. Karjakin, Sergey – GM 2660 UKR 3.5
9. León, Manuel – IM 2428 MEX 2.0
10. Felgaer, Rubén – GM 2607 ARG 1.5
two more rounds to go!
OOps! Final standings!
Ponomariov and Pons share first-second at 6.5!