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1.b6 almost without having to think about it. The immediate idea is to play b7 followed by Rxa7 if black has taken at e6 and then guarded a8 with Re8- black’s king on the 8th rank is a liability in this case since there is no defense to the coming Ra8 pinning the black rook to the king:
1. b6 Re6
2. b7 Re8
What else? Black can take at a6 but the ending is lost since the bishop at b4 is already hanging after the pawn queens with check. Continuing:
3. Ra7 Na5 (no better move)
4. Ra8 Nb7
5. Re8 Kf7
6. Rb7 will win either the knight or the bishop on the next move, and the game.
So, can black find a better defense on the first move?
1. b6 ab6
2. ab6
The other pawn capture is less promising due to the capture by the knight at a5. Continuing:
2. …..Na5 (alternatives later)
3. Ra8!
I think white can win by moving the knight, but the outcome is a lot less clear to me, and even more moves deep. 3.Ra8 wins cleanly, though it takes a while to see just how:
3. …..Kh7 (Kf7 4.Nd8 Kany 5.c6)
4. Ra7 Nc6 (Ra7 5.ba7+-)
5. Re7 Ne7
6. b7 Nc6
7. Ke2 Kg6 (any better move?)
8. Kd3 Be1 (Kf6 9.Nd4 anyway)
9. Nd4 Nb8
Of course, 9. …Nd4 10.Kd4 wins for white, and 9. …Bf2 10.Nc6 Bg3 11.b8Q Bb8 12.Nb8 also wins for white. Continuing:
10.c6! Ba5 (Bf2 11.c7+-)
11.Ke4 and black’s pieces are tied down on the queen side and white can just push the king side pawns down onto the black king supported by the white king. Black has no further defense to offer.
Now, at move 2 in this variation had other alternatives, but I don’t see that they are better:
1. b6 ab6
2. ab6 Nb6
3. cb6 Re6 (Bd6 4.Ra8 Kf7 5.Nd8)
4. b7 Ra6 (Re8 5.Ra8 again)
5. b8Q wins easily. Or;
2. …..Bc3
3. Ra8 Kf7
4. Nd8 Kf6
5. b7 Be5 (what else?)
6. f4! Bc7
7. Rc8+-
Or;
2. …..Rb7
3. c6 Rb6
4. c7! wins easily. Or;
2. …..Ba5
3. Nd8 Re8
4. b7+-
And, lastly, at move 1, black can sacrifice the knight at b6 immediately, the ending is still lost:
1. b6 Nb6
2. ab6 ab6
3. cb6 Re6 (Bd6 4.Nd8+-)
4. b7 and this position was reached earlier.
1. b6 might well not be the only winning move for white here, but I think it is going to be the clearest of a somewhat opaque group.