On Chess: St. Louis Witnessing Chess History-As-It-Happens At Sinquefield Cup
By BRIAN JERAULD
When you’re claiming a page of history, you just never know who might write on it.
The 2014 Sinquefield Cup, the global super-tournament now in progress in the Central West End, had already been prepared to leave its mark in time. Headlined by reigning World Chess Champion GM Magnus Carlsen, along with five other of the world’s top-10 International Grandmasters, the event was set to become a part of chess lore even before its first move: The six-player field is the strongest-rated ever, averaging a 2802 strength never seen in the game’s 1,500-year history.
But now, all that has become a footnote. In fact, just about everything else has become a footnote.
Completely dominating, headlines and otherwise, is GM Fabiano Caruana — whom I introduced last week as the American-born, Italian prodigy finally returning stateside for his first U.S. super-tournament. As noted, Caruana was pulled out of the U.S. to pursue a professional chess career in Europe, and we here in America’s new capital of chess would love to see him return.
I even mentioned how he had won his first game in St. Louis and taken an early lead in the Sinquefield Cup, attempting to give our chess-cozy town credit for his good start.
Cozy, indeed. Now a week later, the 22 year old has piled onto that lead by tallying six wins across his first six games, for a perfect 6-0 start (now at 7-0) — unheard of in today’s world of super chess, generally featuring drawing battles between two players who both refuse to give an inch.
As proof, the other five players have turned in a relatively “normal” tournament, beating each other up, mostly fighting to draws and remaining grouped within one point in the standings after six rounds — though they have all been left in a battle for second place. Caruana has padded a half-point to his lead with each passing opponent and now sits three points ahead of Carlsen, who is in second place.
I must admit I’m a bit worried about writing this column, for the same reasons baseball players aren’t supposed to talk about a no-hitter in progress. But the reality is, regardless of today or tomorrow, this performance has already found its way into the annals of chess history.
Caruana has equaled the longest starting win streak in an elite tournament in the modern era, established by World Champion GM Anatoly Karpov in Linares 1994 — oft-argued as the greatest tournament performance ever.
Twenty years later, we’re witnessing a direct argument to that epic performance, right here in the Central West End. If they weren’t paying attention before, chess enthusiasts everywhere around the globe have already begun celebrating.
The numbers have been crunched and, considering the strength of the field, Caruana had a 3 percent chance just to go 5-0. He had half that chance to go 6-0. Now, as he continues, the probability of what we’re witnessing gets even slimmer: The chances of him going a perfect 10-0 — that is, beating five top-10 opponents twice in the same tournament, is just .09 percent.
Just as slim as it is epic — and we’re watching it happen. With every passing opponent that falls, the roar around the chess world gets louder. St. Louis has already been written on the page.
Source: http://news.stlpublicradio.org
The probability of him winning the next three games is the same as the probability of winning his first three games. It is not “even less likely” as stated in the article.
The probability of him winning the next three games is actually much greater than the probability of him winning the first 7 games.
Go Caruana Go… Sweep them all twice
Not over Nakamura’s body. Naka will smash this toddler hard he won’t even know what hit him.
He can’t repeat twice against Naka. He just got lucky in the first round. I wish Caruana gives all what he’s got cause Naka will surely beat him into dust.
The probability calculations of 3%for 5-0 and 0.09% for 10-0 are WAY too high b/c they assume the probability of winning a game is 50%. However, most games at this level are drawn. If 2/3 of the games are draws and a player would win half his decisive games, then his probability of winning a game is 1/6, so the probability of going 7-0 is 0.0000036, which is why we never see these kinds of results. Probability of 10-0? 0.000000017. There’s something greater than probability going on here. The kid is awesome.
Nakamura will humble this kid second time around. Nobody ever mess up with Naka dude.
possibly everyone else is not bringing their A-game or as Bobby Fischer would insist it’s all rigged
The only player not bringing his “A” game is probably Carlsen who is in preparation for the the WCM. This in no way diminishes Caruana’s accomplishment. This has to be the greatest performance by a GM against other super-GMs, ever (and yes I remember Karpov and Fischer).
Naka can break Caruana’s record of 7-0 in super tournament if he move to live and play in Erope.
Nakamura does live in Europe. He lives full time in Italy.