With the way the ratings climb today, it is not a matter of if someone will break 2900 but when. Who will that first person be? Carlsen? Topalov? Anand? Someone who is 6 years old now? What do you think?
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I think this will be some ugly Russian since Carlsen is already a grown, handsome, intelligent, witty man, who shouldn’t waste 10 hours a day on chess.. so Karjakin maybe?
I Doubt It’ll be because of some freakish chess ability. With the ratings inflation in the past 15 20 years….probably about 10 years from now there’s going to be more than one player over this rating.
Not in 10 years, and n0ne of the players mentioned.
I already broke 2900, losses that is
David
Must be some kid who’s not even born yet, growing up with a highly intuitive and analytically advanced chess program that takes into account the learning curve of the prodigy, and provides a multitude of visual feedback, not just a position single evaluation score. He starts as soon as he is able to move chess pieces around, becomes a grandmaster at age 10, world champion at age 19, and breaks the 2900 barrier that same year.
Unfortunately, he’ll be a freak, a human chess machine, without any other skills whatsoever. And since he has a whole life ahead of him (not her, seems unlikely), he’ll die a miserable old fool, a star that shone too brightly, too early in life, a Bobby Fischer, times 2!
Anonymous , 9.12 am
Karjakin is not a Russian, but a Ukrainean, and he is far from ugly! Be more respectful of top GM’s, in future.
I don’t think Russian GM are ugly. Instead, many Russian GE are very handsome.
Let somone cross 2850 first,then only we will think over of a 2900 barrier.After that we will have plenty of time to debate on that.This is because so far only Kasparov has reached 2851 for a brief period.
Given the rampant ratings inflation, if Kasparov was still playing, and at his 1990/1993/1999 strength, he would already be almost there.
When Fide pushes the time limit to down to 1 minute per game it will be Nakamura.
ugly Russian?
what a stupid amircan ur?
f USA ,what a cultur?!
USA = Terror
Carlsen handsome? You are joking right?
2850 has already been broken by Kasparov with 2851 published in the FIDE list of January of 2000. And that, at that time, will be maybe equivalent to 2900 in 20 years when somebody actually gets that number due tu inflation.
Gary Kasparov.
:: Full report Period Rating Games
Oct 2008 2812 0
Jul 2008 2812 0
Apr 2008 2812 0
Jan 2008 2812 0
Oct 2007 2812 0
Jul 2007 2812 0
Apr 2007 2812 0
Jan 2007 2812 0
Oct 2006 2812 0
Jul 2006 2812 0
Apr 2006 2812 0
Jan 2006 2812 0
Oct 2005 2812 0
Jul 2005 2812 0
Apr 2005 2812 12
Jan 2005 2804 16
Oct 2004 2813 6
Jul 2004 2817 0
Apr 2004 2817 12
Jan 2004 2831 6
Oct 2003 2830 0
Jul 2003 2830 0
Apr 2003 2830 12
Jan 2003 2847 9
Oct 2002 2836 0
Jul 2002 2836 0
Apr 2002 2836 12
Jan 2002 2836 4
Oct 2001 2838 0
Jul 2001 2838 10
Apr 2001 2835 23
Jan 2001 2823 15
Oct 2000 2849 0
Jul 2000 2849 35
Jan 2000 2851 0
If we contemplate that in 2000 the average of the 100 list was 2644 and now is 2682 that is 38 more points Kasparov could have 2889.
Period Average Rating
Top 100 Players October 2008 2682
Top 100 Players July 2008 2679
Top 100 Players April 2008 2677
Top 100 Players January 2008 2675
Top 100 Players October 2007 2672
Top 100 Players July 2007 2671
Top 100 Players April 2007 2669
Top 100 Players January 2007 2666
Top 100 Players October 2006 2666
Top 100 Players July 2006 2665
Top 100 Players April 2006 2664
Top 100 Players January 2006 2664
Top 100 Players October 2005 2663
Top 100 Players July 2005 2662
Top 100 Players April 2005 2661
Top 100 Players January 2005 2658
Top 100 Players October 2004 2657
Top 100 Players July 2004 2658
Top 100 Players April 2004 2656
Top 100 Players January 2004 2654
Top 100 Players October 2003 2654
Top 100 Players July 2003 2653
Top 100 Players April 2003 2651
Top 100 Players January 2003 2650
Top 100 Players October 2002 2649
Top 100 Players July 2002 2649
Top 100 Players April 2002 2645
Top 100 Players January 2002 2645
Top 100 Players October 2001 2646
Top 100 Players July 2001 2645
Top 100 Players April 2001 2646
Top 100 Players January 2001 2647
Top 100 Players October 2000 2644
Top 100 Players July 2000 2644
I know that this kind of speculation is not mathematically based, but interesting anyhow.
I Know that there was a discussion about the evolution of records in 100 m races. Someone implemented an original math method and predicted that Bolt’s time would be possible in the current date, although many other developed math models was predicting that Bolt’s time would be possible just some years in the future. Maybe someone that like statistic can run or develop a model for chess rating based in ELO time series. This could give a good chessbase article.
There are two things that can effect the highest rating. One is ratings inflation, but the other is the size of the rating pool. The more people playing at the international level the more people will have high ratings at either extreme of the distribution, even if the average rating remains identical.
One would have to do a proper statistical study of the rating pool to determine which is the dominating factor. There are certainly a whole lot more people playing at the international level today than there were 20 years ago and it might be that that alone explains the so-called “inflation”.
Until a proper study is done there is no way of knowing what the real cause is, and so no way of knowing how quickly the top rating is to go up. To my knowledge this has not been done so there is really no rational basis for an intelligent conclusion on the matter.
Not that this has ever prevented anyone from having an opinion, however! Usually in fact, the strength of the opinion is inversely proportional to the amount of knowledge about the matter in dispute.
Magnus C.’s future daughter: Susan Carlsen. She will be world champion by 11 and break the 2900 barrier at 21. Then she will be attacked by net loons and the multiple alien clones of Kirsan I. everywhere because of her success.
Fischer’s peak rating was 2785 in 1971-2.
There are now about 6 or 7 players either above or close to that rating.
If all these players (or any of them for that matter) are really as good as Fischer was in 1971-2 [relative to the rest; allowing Fischer to catch up with computers, etc.], I’ll eat my hat!
An interesting article on inflation is by Ron Edwards at members.shaw.ca/redwards1/
He posits a possible increase in inflation of 118 points from 1985 to 2006.
2785 plus 118 equals 2903.
So in effect Bobby already broke 2900 in 1971!
It is very strange that FIDE never has addressed the problem of rating inflation.
The only thing that i can find is that they showed some interest in the year 2002.
http://www.fide.com/info/fide-commissions/2665-1156-73rd-fide-congress–annex-24—qualification-commission-report
Where:
“QC chairman repeated his desire to have a rating history database. It could help in rating inflation studies”
I do not see rating inflation, in terms of ability. Ratings at the top are higher, but the players are far stronger at chess. A 2900 of year 2015 would wipe the floor with Fischer and Morphy at their best.
Now that everybody can get some training with Fritz and Rybka, read the latest Informators, and all the basic books in chess, it may be a gifted Peruvian, Namibian, or anybody.
Times have changed and ratings will climb. Who cares. What matters is who is World Champ at any moment. Also Rybka fed chess prodigies should not be compared with the likes of Fischer who truly had to play using their own brains!. For instance a guy like Topalov is surely no way close to Fischer in natural chess ability, IQ or talent!.
Topalov!
Not later than 2012! Remember this!