Well, the only move that immediately suggests itself to me is Kb5:
1. Kb5
Here, white is threatening the c-pawn which seems only protected by advancement. Continuing:
1. …..c4 2. Kb4
Obviously forced as the c-pawn threatens to run away and queen itself with any other move than Kb4or Ka4. I favor Kb4 on first principles as it put white in contact with c3. Now the question is how should black reply? I see no useful pawn moves that don’t just drop a pawn for no benefit, so we are left with king moves Ka6, Ka7, Ka8, Kb8, Kc8, Kc7, or Kc6. Again, on first principles, I would favor a direct attack on the passed white a-pawn. Continuing:
2. …..Ka6
Here, as white trying to win, I would want to improve the pawn structure by liquidating, or threatening to liquidate the backward e-pawn. Continuing:
3. e4
Now, the critical question is back on black. He cannot take at e4 without allowing the white king a path to win f7, g6, and h5. For example:
3. …..de4? 4. Kc4 Ka5 (e3 5.fe3 Ka5 6.Kc5) 5. Kc5 Ka4 (what else?) 6. Kd6 Kb3 (everything loses now) 7. Ke7 Kc3 8. Kf7 Kd3 9. Ke6 Ke2 10.Kd5 and the e-pawn will queen and black has no counterplay whatsoever. At move 3, passing the e-pawn looks more resistant as it cuts the white king off from the backward black pawns, but white wins anyway, I think:
3. …..d4 4. Kc4 Ka5 5. Kd4
Here, I don’t really know what is best for black. He must take control of c5 to keep the white king out, but whether he does better with Kb6, Kb5, or Kb4, I can’t tell for sure. I don’t think it will make a difference, but I can’t be sure. Kb5 looks visually best to me since white is threatening to reach f7 via e3-f4-g5-f6:
5. …..Kb5 6. Ke3
Here, it makes sense to stop and count moves (actually, I had already counted the moves after move 3). As I wrote before, white is threatening to reach f7, but can black liquidate the e-pawns in time? The critical line is:
6. …..Kc5 7. Kf4 Kd4
Now, Kg5 is prevented by the attack on e4, but white now has
8. f3
And black is in zugzwang- any pawn move drops a pawn and the game, and any king move drops the attack on e5 giving white a tempo for Kg5. Continuing:
8. …..Kd3 9. Kg5 Ke3 10.Kf6 Kf3 11.Kf7 Kg3 (Ke4 12.Ke6 +-) 12.Ke6 Kh4 13.Kd5 and white will win. So, at move 6, black cannot move in behind the white pawns and hold the position- he must try to protect f7 with the king. This argues for 6. ….Kc6 or Kb6. I don’t think, in the end, which move matters as white has a waiting move like f3 in reserve (which also creates another waiting move possibility in g4). Continuing:
6. …..Kc6 7. Kf4 Kd7 8. Kg5 Ke7 9. f3 Ke8 10.Kf6 Kf8 (what else) 11.g4 hg4 (everything loses now) 12.fg4 Kg8 (Ke8 is same) 13.h5 gh5 14.gh5 and black’s king will be diverted to pick up the passed h-pawn while white wins f7 and e6 and queens his e-pawn.
So, the last loose thread in this line of analysis are the alternatives at move 8 above, but how can they matter since white has the waiting moves of f3 and g4 to always put black back in zugzwang?
Ok, with that out of the way, we are back to black’s third move. I will continue in my next comment due to length.
White has the enormous plus in the outside passed a-pawn, but Black has the plus of the passed, protected c-pawn. But it looks like White can break up Black’s pawns by playing e4 at the right moment. So I think this is going to be a win for White.
1.Kb5 [looks like only try for a win]
1… c4 [forced, but threatens c3 ]
2.Kb4 [forced, must stop c-pawn from promoting]
2… Ka6 [looks forced; c3 would be premature, before Black king reaches a6]
Now White has to decide whether to go after the Black pawn on e4, or whether to go after the Black pawn on f7. Hunch is to go after the f7 pawn so let’s try that first.
5.Kc5 [apparently another “winning move”, as Black appears to have no good moves; all pawn moves are suicidal so Black probably has to play Ka4; the king “opposition” is killing Black here]
5… Ka4 6.Kd6 Kb4 7.Ke7 Kc4 8.Kxf7 [yes] 8… Kd5 9.Kf6 [that’s as far as we need to take it]
In my previous comment, I had analyzed the following line that begins:
1. Kb5 c4 2. Kb4 Ka6 3. e4
I had shown that black loses with both 3. ….de4 and 3. ….d4. So, can black play anything else at this point? Well, yes he can- he has Ka7 and Kb7. Continuing:
3. …..Kb7
Here, white’s king is tied down by the black c-pawn. To make progress towards a win, he must take at d5 eventually, now, or after f3 and/or g4. Let’s just take now to see where we stand:
4. ed5 ed5 (forced)
Now, here, white has a clear draw by playing the king between c3 and b4 while black keeps the a-pawn under supervision with Ka6 and Kb7/a7. So, can white win? For the moment, black’s passers are completely under control. White has a passed a-pawn and can create another on the kingside with his majority. With this idea in mind, white must play f3 followed by g4. Continuing:
5. f3 Ka6 (anything else loses) 6. g4
Now, a critical decision for black. He has the following options- Kb7/a7, c3, d4, hg4, or g5. I am pretty certain without having to work it through that c3 and d4 lose for black as both pawns fall and white will create to passers on opposite wings, but I will look at c3 to be sure, and will take the other moves in order:
Option 1 with 6. ….Kb7/a7:
6. …..Kb7 7. gh5 hg5 8. f4 Kc6 (Ka6 9.f5 Kb7 10.e6+-) 9. f5 d4 (everything loses now) 10.Kc4 d3 11.Kd3 and it is clear that white wins this. Indeed, this line alone demonstrates the futility of moves like 6. ….c3 and 6. …d4. So, the remaining 6th move options are:
6. …..hg4 7. fg4 Kb7 8. h5 and it is over as white gets a passed h-pawn. Or
6. …..g5 7. gh5 gh4 8. h6 and white will queen a move ahead and the new queen will cover black’s h-pawn.
So, all in all, white wins this position. The first moves for white are “obvious” moves to me in the sense that I literally was incapable of seeing any other plan, but I would have to play them over the board and hope to work it out as I went. The key insight is in the position after black’s forced 4th move- the 4 vs 3 pawn structure on the kingside gave white a second passer on the other side of the board- I could see this was a likely win without having to think deeply about it.
Win for White: 1.Kb5 c4 2.Kb4 Ka6 (nothing better for Black) 3.e4 de (forced otherwise White gets a passer on the k-side too with 4.ed) 4.Kxc4 Kxa5 5.Kc5! Then white gobbles the pawns on f7 and e6, plays Kf6 and promotes while Black gobbles on f2 and promotes one move later. White swaps queens on f file with an easy win.
Black is in troubles. Let’s try Kb5. The idea behind is that Black’s king is bound watch the a pawn and White can build another free pawn on the sixth rank.
Perhaps I did not realize a resource of Black’s defence? he cant play 4. hxg4, because fxg4 and then h5 creates a winning free pawn and of course the King is forced to keep attention to the a pawn.
Well, the only move that immediately suggests itself to me is Kb5:
1. Kb5
Here, white is threatening the c-pawn which seems only protected by advancement. Continuing:
1. …..c4
2. Kb4
Obviously forced as the c-pawn threatens to run away and queen itself with any other move than Kb4or Ka4. I favor Kb4 on first principles as it put white in contact with c3. Now the question is how should black reply? I see no useful pawn moves that don’t just drop a pawn for no benefit, so we are left with king moves Ka6, Ka7, Ka8, Kb8, Kc8, Kc7, or Kc6. Again, on first principles, I would favor a direct attack on the passed white a-pawn. Continuing:
2. …..Ka6
Here, as white trying to win, I would want to improve the pawn structure by liquidating, or threatening to liquidate the backward e-pawn. Continuing:
3. e4
Now, the critical question is back on black. He cannot take at e4 without allowing the white king a path to win f7, g6, and h5. For example:
3. …..de4?
4. Kc4 Ka5 (e3 5.fe3 Ka5 6.Kc5)
5. Kc5 Ka4 (what else?)
6. Kd6 Kb3 (everything loses now)
7. Ke7 Kc3
8. Kf7 Kd3
9. Ke6 Ke2
10.Kd5 and the e-pawn will queen and black has no counterplay whatsoever. At move 3, passing the e-pawn looks more resistant as it cuts the white king off from the backward black pawns, but white wins anyway, I think:
3. …..d4
4. Kc4 Ka5
5. Kd4
Here, I don’t really know what is best for black. He must take control of c5 to keep the white king out, but whether he does better with Kb6, Kb5, or Kb4, I can’t tell for sure. I don’t think it will make a difference, but I can’t be sure. Kb5 looks visually best to me since white is threatening to reach f7 via e3-f4-g5-f6:
5. …..Kb5
6. Ke3
Here, it makes sense to stop and count moves (actually, I had already counted the moves after move 3). As I wrote before, white is threatening to reach f7, but can black liquidate the e-pawns in time? The critical line is:
6. …..Kc5
7. Kf4 Kd4
Now, Kg5 is prevented by the attack on e4, but white now has
8. f3
And black is in zugzwang- any pawn move drops a pawn and the game, and any king move drops the attack on e5 giving white a tempo for Kg5. Continuing:
8. …..Kd3
9. Kg5 Ke3
10.Kf6 Kf3
11.Kf7 Kg3 (Ke4 12.Ke6 +-)
12.Ke6 Kh4
13.Kd5 and white will win. So, at move 6, black cannot move in behind the white pawns and hold the position- he must try to protect f7 with the king. This argues for 6. ….Kc6 or Kb6. I don’t think, in the end, which move matters as white has a waiting move like f3 in reserve (which also creates another waiting move possibility in g4). Continuing:
6. …..Kc6
7. Kf4 Kd7
8. Kg5 Ke7
9. f3 Ke8
10.Kf6 Kf8 (what else)
11.g4 hg4 (everything loses now)
12.fg4 Kg8 (Ke8 is same)
13.h5 gh5
14.gh5 and black’s king will be diverted to pick up the passed h-pawn while white wins f7 and e6 and queens his e-pawn.
So, the last loose thread in this line of analysis are the alternatives at move 8 above, but how can they matter since white has the waiting moves of f3 and g4 to always put black back in zugzwang?
Ok, with that out of the way, we are back to black’s third move. I will continue in my next comment due to length.
White has the enormous plus in the outside passed a-pawn, but Black has the plus of the passed, protected c-pawn. But it looks like White can break up Black’s pawns by playing e4 at the right moment. So I think this is going to be a win for White.
1.Kb5 [looks like only try for a win]
1… c4 [forced, but threatens c3 ]
2.Kb4 [forced, must stop c-pawn from promoting]
2… Ka6 [looks forced; c3 would be premature, before Black king reaches a6]
3.e4 [the “winning move”]
3… dxe4 [3… c3 doesn’t look good: 4.Kxc3 Kxa5 (4… dxe4? Kb4) 5. exd5 exd5 6. Kd4 Kb6 7.Kxd5 Kc7 8.e6 winning]
4.Kxc4 Kxa5
Now White has to decide whether to go after the Black pawn on e4, or whether to go after the Black pawn on f7. Hunch is to go after the f7 pawn so let’s try that first.
5.Kc5 [apparently another “winning move”, as Black appears to have no good moves; all pawn moves are suicidal so Black probably has to play Ka4; the king “opposition” is killing Black here]
5… Ka4
6.Kd6 Kb4
7.Ke7 Kc4
8.Kxf7 [yes]
8… Kd5
9.Kf6 [that’s as far as we need to take it]
Lucy
In my previous comment, I had analyzed the following line that begins:
1. Kb5 c4
2. Kb4 Ka6
3. e4
I had shown that black loses with both 3. ….de4 and 3. ….d4. So, can black play anything else at this point? Well, yes he can- he has Ka7 and Kb7. Continuing:
3. …..Kb7
Here, white’s king is tied down by the black c-pawn. To make progress towards a win, he must take at d5 eventually, now, or after f3 and/or g4. Let’s just take now to see where we stand:
4. ed5 ed5 (forced)
Now, here, white has a clear draw by playing the king between c3 and b4 while black keeps the a-pawn under supervision with Ka6 and Kb7/a7. So, can white win? For the moment, black’s passers are completely under control. White has a passed a-pawn and can create another on the kingside with his majority. With this idea in mind, white must play f3 followed by g4. Continuing:
5. f3 Ka6 (anything else loses)
6. g4
Now, a critical decision for black. He has the following options- Kb7/a7, c3, d4, hg4, or g5. I am pretty certain without having to work it through that c3 and d4 lose for black as both pawns fall and white will create to passers on opposite wings, but I will look at c3 to be sure, and will take the other moves in order:
Option 1 with 6. ….Kb7/a7:
6. …..Kb7
7. gh5 hg5
8. f4 Kc6 (Ka6 9.f5 Kb7 10.e6+-)
9. f5 d4 (everything loses now)
10.Kc4 d3
11.Kd3 and it is clear that white wins this. Indeed, this line alone demonstrates the futility of moves like 6. ….c3 and 6. …d4. So, the remaining 6th move options are:
6. …..hg4
7. fg4 Kb7
8. h5 and it is over as white gets a passed h-pawn. Or
6. …..g5
7. gh5 gh4
8. h6 and white will queen a move ahead and the new queen will cover black’s h-pawn.
So, all in all, white wins this position. The first moves for white are “obvious” moves to me in the sense that I literally was incapable of seeing any other plan, but I would have to play them over the board and hope to work it out as I went. The key insight is in the position after black’s forced 4th move- the 4 vs 3 pawn structure on the kingside gave white a second passer on the other side of the board- I could see this was a likely win without having to think deeply about it.
1.Kb5 c4 2.Kb4 Ka6 3.e4 c3 4.Kxc3 Kxa5 5.exd5 exd5 6.Kd4 Kb6 7.Kxd5 Kc7 8.e6 fxe6+ 9.Kxe6.
i think its a draw.since the kings are both committed on the passed pawns.both literally and laterally
Win for White: 1.Kb5 c4 2.Kb4 Ka6 (nothing better for Black) 3.e4 de (forced otherwise White gets a passer on the k-side too with 4.ed) 4.Kxc4 Kxa5 5.Kc5! Then white gobbles the pawns on f7 and e6, plays Kf6 and promotes while Black gobbles on f2 and promotes one move later. White swaps queens on f file with an easy win.
Black is in troubles. Let’s try Kb5. The idea behind is that Black’s king is bound watch the a pawn and White can build another free pawn on the sixth rank.
1. Kb5 c4
2. Kb4 Ka6
3. f3 Kb7
4. g4 Ka6
5. g5 Kb7
6. f4 Ka6
7. e4 Kb7
8. exd5 exd5
9. f5 gxf5
10. e6 fxe6
11. g6
White should win that
Perhaps I did not realize a resource of Black’s defence? he cant play 4. hxg4, because fxg4 and then h5 creates a winning free pawn and of course the King is forced to keep attention to the a pawn.
1. f3 c4
2. Kb4 g5
3. hg5 Kc6
4. f4 Kd7
5. f5 ef5
6. e5+ fe5
7. g6 Ke6
8. a6 wins
Kb5 sets up a GM Roman – like breakthrough.
I have not worked it out in all variations, but I’d call it White wins in all variations of best play by both sides.
Time to pop it in Rybka 4 and see!!
Peter / chesstoplay