60 point increase in the past 12 years!

2 comments

• Reply

  

  Anonymous says:

  September 17, 2012 at 12:34 pm

  Inflation big time.

• Reply

  

  KWRegan says:

  September 17, 2012 at 2:59 pm

  In reply to the first comment, my work indicates otherwise: the quality of the moves made by players of a given Elo rating has stayed pretty constant over time. Slide #20 of my presentation of research with Guy Haworth and GM Bartlomiej Macieja plots Scaled Average Error versus time for round-robin tournaments of categories 11 through 22, all years since 1971–1974. If there were inflation of 60 points since 2000 (a 2-1/2 category difference), or 100–150 points as some have argued since the 1980’s, then the lines would slope markedly up to the right. If anything they tend downward. Slide #22 shows similar results for moves 17–32 only, to limit the effect of opening prep and the worst of time pressure.

  In work not yet published, I have run intense Multi-PV analysis of all games in round-robin or small Swiss events in which both players were rated near 2600—all such games since the FIDE Elo system started in 1971. (Our paper does this for all Elo century marks 2200..2700 in the years 1976–79, 1991–94, 2006–09 only.) Between the 1980’s and now one can argue 15–30 points of inflation, but I think today’s faster time controls and elimination of adjournments explain most if not all of that. Since the year 2000 there is basically no difference in the analyzed quality of 2600-level play.

  We have larger numbers of people playing chess, from a bigger array of countries with proud teams, to judge from recent Olympiads. Why should a higher list be a surprise?