Round 10 pairings
2 GM Karjakin Sergey RUS – GM Andreikin Dmitry RUS 1
4 GM Kramnik Vladimir RUS – GM Svidler Peter RUS 3
7 GM Aronian Levon ARM – GM Topalov Veselin BUL 8
6 GM Anand Viswanathan IND – GM Mamedyarov Shakhriyar AZE 5
http://candidates2014.fide.com
Prediction?
Chess Daily News from Susan Polgar
Anand will win the final 5 games.
Will win the chess & neutral this game lovers!!!
My guess:
Kramnik wins with white against Svidler.
A draw between Karjakin and Andreikin.
Topalov looses with black against Aronian.
Mamedyarov looses with black against Anand.
However, my prediction is that it will probably not turn out as I guess. My impression is that the weather is rarely predicted accurately five days in advance, and I guess the same can be said about predicting the outcome of four games like these in advance – the outcome will generally deviate, sometimes a lot, from any effort to predict the games “rationally”.
That said, last round wasn’t that much of a surprise when it comes to Aronian losing, as he doesn’t have a very good record against Mamedyarov and clearly is marked by his loss to Anand, so it’s not like “rational” predictions generally are completely off mark. And Kramnik doesn’t have that much of a good record against Karjakin either (I’m looking at the fide site with tournaments submitted after October 2007).
Anand is the one making the difference, his results against Aronian make no sense “rationally” looking at his record against this player.
So this makes one wonder how “rational” the winners of the candidate tournaments have been?
Obviously, the great weakness of “rationality” is that it only takes into account the past, not the present nor the feature. And as it happens, life is never-ending, ever-changing, and so who/what was best over a certain period in the past won’t necessarily be best right now or in the future.
This makes it quite logical that Anand can go from being the best to being below the best, only to come back, win this tournament and…? (we’ve seen this before in sports) Apparently he’s gone from number 8 to number 3 at the ratings so far in this tournament ( http://www.2700chess.com ) and who knows where it’ll stop.
Somehow the nature of predictions makes it more logical to predict the winner of this tournament at this moment than before it begun, because we now have an input as fresh and relevant as it gets. So in a way I guess all those who gave predictions in the media before the event would have been wise to say “come back later, after nine rounds I can come with a qualified guess”.
If they had been asked now instead, I think quite a few of them would have Anand as their guess…
And so, if there indeed is a rematch between Anand and Carlsen, I won’t put much confidence in pre-match predictions. However, after 8 games between them, surely predictions make a lot more sense, as should be the case right now in relation to the on-going tournament (so – nice idea to ask for predictions as the tournament goes on).
I have made one prediction here earlier (before round 7) and got only one right – Kramnik’s win against Mamedyarov. My hope is that I will get at least two right this time, as it would make kind of sense to make better and better predictions as the tournament goes on. If nothing turns out as predicted, I’ll simply give up “predicting”…
Didn’t you forget sth?