Final FIDE July List top ratings estimate
Measure Up, with Hans Arild Runde (June 20th)
by Chessdom
And the saga continues… I must admit that trying to predict what FIDE will do, sometimes feel like trying to hit a moving target! After yesterday’s rumors, it seemed certain that Aerosvit would be included in the FIDE July list. And in their reply today, FIDE’s positive response to the request concerning Aerosvit is duly documented. However, it’s also communicated that in a second response, FIDE announces that they are going to enforce the deadline for rating report submissions strictly this period, and hence Aerosvit will not be included in the July list!
We therefore bring another updated July list estimate, quite similar to the one published June 17th. It has one additional change, though, which is the inclusion of the 2008 National Open in Las Vegas. See below for a few more comments in that respect. We would also like to emphasize that this is an estimate – there still might be changes unknown to us at the current time, but this is the final July list preview that Chessdom will publish. Any further changes will as usual be communicated in the tournament section of the Live Top List, so please drop by now and then to see what’s happening!
FIDE July List Preview
Rank Name Rating Games Change Born
01 Anand 2798 2 -5 1969
02 Morozevich 2788 20 14 1977
03 Kramnik 2788 0 0 1975
04 Ivanchuk 2781 25 41 1969
05 Topalov 2777 10 10 1975
06 Carlsen 2775 16 10 1990
07 Radjabov 2744 31 -7 1987
08 Mamedyarov 2742 23 -10 1985
09 Shirov 2741 11 1 1972
10 Leko 2741 0 0 1979
11 Svidler 2738 32 -8 1976
12 Aronian 2737 11 -26 1982
13 Adams 2735 20 6 1971
14 Grischuk 2728 21 12 1983
15 Karjakin 2727 27 -5 1990
16 Movsesian 2723 53 28 1978
17 Kamsky 2723 28 -3 1974
18 Gelfand 2720 10 -3 1968
19 Ponomariov 2718 10 -1 1983
20 Gashimov 2717 34 38 1986
Here is the full article on chessdom.
Anand is best of course.
Carlsen drops out of the top 5.
Here is a rating inflation method. A player does better than he normally does and beats weaker GMs getting his rating up high enough to play in a super tournament. But then a bit over-rated he plays in supertournaments- drops back to his old rating. Notice that he has kept the same rating in the end- but transferred rating points from the weak gms to the super gms. This is inflationary particularly for the top gms who almost exclusively play in supertournaments like Peter Leko.
Magnus is coming for you Vishy!
Bwah Ha Ha Ha!
Carlsen has dropped out of the top 5, why should Anand fear him?
For Anand- by far his main focus is on the Kramnik match in November- even his rating or other tournaments pale in importance to this. Carlsen is far down the list of his concerns.
Dortmund starts soon. If Ivanchuk scores +2 there he will have a virtual rating of only a point below Anand’s, and with +3 Ivanchuk will be virtual world number 1 with 2802.
Go on Ivanchuk it is a real chance now with a relatively weak Dortmund! (Half the players are Van Wely’s strength or weaker!)
It’s hard to argue that there’s no inflation at the top when you see a guy like Vadim Milov first break through 2700 at age 36.
So it’s safe to assume that all those guys who are approching 2800 have a bloated rating as well.
Carlsen hasn’t “dropped out” of the top 5. FIDE simply seems to have decided not to count his latest tournament(s) just yet… But it will all be counted next time, so Anand is still very much in danger of losing his top spot soon.
Anand is in danger of losing his top spot not just to Carlsen.
Eg. the next one who might break 2800 on the virtual list is Ivanchuk in Dortmund.
All Anand would need is to slip Vodka into Carlsens Orange Juice, but then Chucky would win by consuming it!
All Anand would need is to slip Vodka into Carlsens Orange Juice, but then Chucky would win by consuming it!