Round 4
GM Svidler Peter – GM Gelfand Boris
GM Aronian Levon – GM Leko Peter
GM Kramnik Vladimir – GM Grischuk Alexander
GM Morozevich Alexander – GM Anand Viswanathan
Your prediction?
Chess Daily News from Susan Polgar
Round 4 matchups
Considering his opponent Anand, I think that Morozevich will be satisfied if he can draw. I would expect that all other white players will go for a win, and from these three games, Kramnik-Grischuk is the most likely to end 1-0.
I agree, Kramnik wins, the rest are draws.
GM Svidler 1/2 GM Gelfand
GM Aronian 0-1 GM Leko
GM Kramnik 1-0 GM Grischuk
GM Morozevich 1-0 GM Anand
I think Morozevich has the style to be able to beat Anand and his preparation OTB with White. Leko should squeeze a disheartened Aronian and Kramnik will outplay Grishuk.
GM Svidler 1-0 GM Gelfand
GM Aronian 0-1 GM Leko
GM Kramnik 1-0 GM Grischuk
GM Morozevich 0-1 GM Anand
1/2
0/1
1/0
1/2
I do not think Leko will win with black against Aronian like all the others do here.
I suppose 4 draws or perhaps 3 draws and a win by Aronian against Leko.
Greetings
Jochen
svidler 1/2 gelfand
aronian 0/1 leko
kramnik 1/0 grischuk
morozevich 1/2 anand
and jochen 0/6 the rest of us
greetings …
The probabilities are:
– Kramnik wins, 80%; Grischuk wins 5%; draw 15%
– Morozevich wins, 30%; Anand wins, 45%, draw 25%
– Svidler wins, 5%, Gelfand wins, 4%, draw 91%
– Aronian wins, 20%, Leko wins 10%, draw 70%
The estimates above are first order approximations based on Bayesian Prior Beliefs. The beliefs, of course, are mine.
Interestingly enough, Moro has a better track record against Anand than does Kramnik. Moro stands 8+ 8- 10= vs Kramnik’s 14+ 18- 87=. One thing for sure, we’ll likely see Moro play an unusual line of ?.
You are missing that Kramnik and Anand played 119 games! And there are 87 draws. 18 Anand wins to 14 Kramnik wins don’t make much sense it’s about equal. The huge amount of draws between them showing that they are almost equal players in strength.
Coming to todays round my predictions:
Svidler-Gelfand 1-0
Aronian-Leko 1-0
Kramnik-Grischuk 1/2 (I hope Kramnik wins but I think game will be a draw)
Morozevich-Anand 0-1 (I am not sure of that Moro can struggle with anand in such an important tournament)
I will only predict the Svidler-Gelfand game: Gelfand will score with black. He is totally underestimated and well prepared for this tournament.
I don’t bother with predictions, and don’t understand why Leko is favorite against Aronian, but Kramnik and Anad could not have played 119 classical chess games. This number is too large and must include rapid and other forms.
On chesspro.ru, GM Sutovsky recently published an interesting article (in Russian) http://www.chesspro.ru/_events/2007/mexico1.html
He discusses chances and cites some classic game stats. Kramnik is +11 against his opponents, followed by Anand at +7, and Svidler at +3. Svidler is -4 against Kramnik and -4 against Anand, but +4 against Leko. Leko is the only one who “maintains even record” with Kramnik. Does this mean Kamnik has a plus against Anand in classic?
True, the 87 draws and 119 game database gives Kramnik the second best record (scoring a composite 48.32%) against Anand of the 8 players in Mexico. Moro is the only player there against whom Anand hasn’t scored in excess of 50%.
Leko has also scored an impressive number of draws, 40, against Anand, but has only won 4 of the 22 full point games. That translates into a 61.29% success rate for Anand.
And the other player famous/infamous for his ‘ability’ to draw, Svidler, hasn’t fared much better: 2+ 9- 26= which gives Anand a 59.46% success rate.
The numbers would seem to indicate that IF Anand is going to lose even one game here in Mexico, and especially now that he only has one game left with Kramnik, then it will be likely be to Moro.
My predictions…
GM Svidler – GM Gelfand: 1/2
GM Aronian – GM Leko : 0-1
GM Kramnik – GM Grischuk : 1/2
GM Morozevich – GM Anand : 0-1
white wins every time except morozevich