I don’t see any knockout moves (suspicious), but Rc8 should give white an edge:
1. Rc8 Bf2
Here black cannot capture at c8: [1. …Qc8? 2.Ra7! Ne7 (or 2. …Ke8 3.Qg7 Bh6 4.Qh8+-) 3.Re7! Ke7 4.Qg7 Kd8 5.Qh8 Kc7 6.Qc8 Kc8 7.fe3+-]; nor can black protect the bishop with f4 while harassing the white queen: [1. …f4 2.Qg5 h6 3.Qd8 Qd8 4.Rd8 Bc5 5.Ra7 Kg6 6.Re8 Kh7 (better than 6. …Kf5? 7.Rg7 winning the knight) 7.Re6+-]; and, lastly, Bf4 won’t help more than Bf2 either: [1. …Bf4 2.Qc3! Be5 3.Qe5! Qc8 4.Rc1! (here, Ra7 and Rxe7 doesn’t work because there is no white pawn at e5 forcing the black king to the 8th rank after the capture at g7) 4 …Qa6 5.Nd4! b5 6.g4! and this attack is unsurvivable]. Continuing:
2. Kf2!
Keeping the pressure on g7. Continuing:
2. …..Qc8 (else 3.Raa8 or 3.Rca8) 3. Ra7 Ke8!
Or as seen in a variation above: [3. …Ne7? 4.Re7 Ke7 5.Qg7 Kd8 6.Qh8 Kc7 7.Qc8 Kc8 leaves white up a piece for a pawn]. The difference here between playing Ke8 vs Ne7 in this main line as opposed to the variation I outlineded in the note after black’s 1st move is that the white king can be checked from c2 by the black queen- this was the point of black’s sacrifice at f2. Continuing:
4. Qg7
Now, is this the best move for white? I simply can’t tell. After I finish with 4.Qg7, I will outline what I see with 4.Nd4 (covering c2). The advantage that is easily seen with 4.Qg7 is that black is forced to go for a perpetual- if the white king can hide, then black is forced to simplify by exchanging queens, at best. Let’s see how the white king can hide and force the queen exchange. Continuing:
The only move to hold. On Qd3+, white blocks with Nd2 and black has no more safe checks. On Qb1+, white blocks with Nc1 again leaving no more safe checks, and white will mate starting with Qf7+. Continuing:
7. Qg4 fg4 8. Nd4 h5
Black almost has nothing but this move to activate the rook. Continuing:
9. Ne6 Rh6 (again, what else?) 10.Nd4
And I am going to end this here. I could easily spend another hour looking at this ending to determine how great white’s advantage actually is, but it would be very speculative after this point, and certainly not exhaustive.
So, before I end this, I just want to outline what I see after 4.Nd4 in this main line (the alternative to 4.Qg7 above):
4. Nd4 Qc5
I looked at other queen moves, but white has Qa3 in reserve here in addition to Ne6 if the black queen leaves the guard on e6, and Qc5 helps guard against these. Continuing:
5. Qc3
I looked at this for a while, but really can’t see anything better than this offer to exchange queens:
And white definitely has an initiative with threats like Ra8 followed by e6+ (Ke7 at any point allows knight fork). However, this line definitely has more variations and is harder to evaluate.
All in all, I really feel I am missing something right at the start, but I just can’t see what it might be.
(The other options lose on the spot. If 2….. Kf8 3. Qxg7+ Ke8 4. Qf7+ Kd8 5. Qf8# If 2….. Ne7 3. Rxe7+! Kxe7 4. Qxg7+ Kd8 5. Qxh8+ Kc7 6. Qxc8+ Kxc8 7. fxe3 +- )
3. Qxg7 (threatening mate with Qf7 – Qf8; and I cant see how long black can hold) 3…… Bh6! 4. Qxh8 Kf8 5. Qxh7 Qe8 and this is a zugzwang – black’s king, queen, knight and bishop cannot leave their squares. His pawns will soon disappear. Black can safely resign now.
1. R:c8 and 1…Q:c8 is impossible because of 2. Ra7+ and 3. Q:g7.
Black probably has to try to defend via 1…Bf4 (1…B:f2+ 2. K:f2 and the R is still immune to capture), but now 2. Qc3 B:e5 3. Qc2 leaves white up an exchange and with monstrous threats.
Rxc8? That seems right to my patzer eyes.
1. Qxe3, followed by Qxb6 wins
I don’t see any knockout moves (suspicious), but Rc8 should give white an edge:
1. Rc8 Bf2
Here black cannot capture at c8: [1. …Qc8? 2.Ra7! Ne7 (or 2. …Ke8 3.Qg7 Bh6 4.Qh8+-) 3.Re7! Ke7 4.Qg7 Kd8 5.Qh8 Kc7 6.Qc8 Kc8 7.fe3+-]; nor can black protect the bishop with f4 while harassing the white queen: [1. …f4 2.Qg5 h6 3.Qd8 Qd8 4.Rd8 Bc5 5.Ra7 Kg6 6.Re8 Kh7 (better than 6. …Kf5? 7.Rg7 winning the knight) 7.Re6+-]; and, lastly, Bf4 won’t help more than Bf2 either: [1. …Bf4 2.Qc3! Be5 3.Qe5! Qc8 4.Rc1! (here, Ra7 and Rxe7 doesn’t work because there is no white pawn at e5 forcing the black king to the 8th rank after the capture at g7) 4 …Qa6 5.Nd4! b5 6.g4! and this attack is unsurvivable]. Continuing:
2. Kf2!
Keeping the pressure on g7. Continuing:
2. …..Qc8 (else 3.Raa8 or 3.Rca8)
3. Ra7 Ke8!
Or as seen in a variation above: [3. …Ne7? 4.Re7 Ke7 5.Qg7 Kd8 6.Qh8 Kc7 7.Qc8 Kc8 leaves white up a piece for a pawn]. The difference here between playing Ke8 vs Ne7 in this main line as opposed to the variation I outlineded in the note after black’s 1st move is that the white king can be checked from c2 by the black queen- this was the point of black’s sacrifice at f2. Continuing:
4. Qg7
Now, is this the best move for white? I simply can’t tell. After I finish with 4.Qg7, I will outline what I see with 4.Nd4 (covering c2). The advantage that is easily seen with 4.Qg7 is that black is forced to go for a perpetual- if the white king can hide, then black is forced to simplify by exchanging queens, at best. Let’s see how the white king can hide and force the queen exchange. Continuing:
4. …..Qc2 (what else?)
5. Ke1 Qe4 (only move)
6. Kd1 Qg4
The only move to hold. On Qd3+, white blocks with Nd2 and black has no more safe checks. On Qb1+, white blocks with Nc1 again leaving no more safe checks, and white will mate starting with Qf7+. Continuing:
7. Qg4 fg4
8. Nd4 h5
Black almost has nothing but this move to activate the rook. Continuing:
9. Ne6 Rh6 (again, what else?)
10.Nd4
And I am going to end this here. I could easily spend another hour looking at this ending to determine how great white’s advantage actually is, but it would be very speculative after this point, and certainly not exhaustive.
So, before I end this, I just want to outline what I see after 4.Nd4 in this main line (the alternative to 4.Qg7 above):
4. Nd4 Qc5
I looked at other queen moves, but white has Qa3 in reserve here in addition to Ne6 if the black queen leaves the guard on e6, and Qc5 helps guard against these. Continuing:
5. Qc3
I looked at this for a while, but really can’t see anything better than this offer to exchange queens:
5. …..g6 (anything better?)
6. Kf3 h5 (or Qc3)
7. Ne6 Qc3 (forced now)
8. bc3 h4
9. Nf4 g5
And white definitely has an initiative with threats like Ra8 followed by e6+ (Ke7 at any point allows knight fork). However, this line definitely has more variations and is harder to evaluate.
All in all, I really feel I am missing something right at the start, but I just can’t see what it might be.
Something like Rc8, Bf2+, Kf2, Qc8, Ta7+ seems winning
1.Rc8 Qc8 2.Ra7+ Ne7 3.Rxe7+ Kxe7 4.Qxg7+ and wins
This is a tribute to John Hinkley. (The Ronald Reagan Assassin)
1. Rxc8 Qxc8 2. Ra7+ Ne7 3. Rxe7+ Kxe7 4. Qxg7+ Kd8 5. Qxg8+ followed by 6. Qxc8+ and 7. fxe3 winning
1. Rxc8 Qxc8
2. Ra7+ Ke8!
(The other options lose on the spot. If 2….. Kf8
3. Qxg7+ Ke8
4. Qf7+ Kd8
5. Qf8#
If 2….. Ne7
3. Rxe7+! Kxe7
4. Qxg7+ Kd8
5. Qxh8+ Kc7
6. Qxc8+ Kxc8
7. fxe3 +- )
3. Qxg7 (threatening mate with Qf7 – Qf8; and I cant see how long black can hold)
3…… Bh6!
4. Qxh8 Kf8
5. Qxh7 Qe8
and this is a zugzwang – black’s king, queen, knight and bishop cannot leave their squares. His pawns will soon disappear.
Black can safely resign now.
1. R:c8 and 1…Q:c8 is impossible because of 2. Ra7+ and 3. Q:g7.
Black probably has to try to defend via 1…Bf4 (1…B:f2+ 2. K:f2 and the R is still immune to capture), but now 2. Qc3 B:e5 3. Qc2 leaves white up an exchange and with monstrous threats.