Average Ratings
Two berths in the 2016 Candidate’s Tournament are reserved for the two highest rated players not already qualified in another manner. “Highest rated” is determined by the player’s AVERAGE rating across all 12 monthly ratings lists from 2015. Here is how the top 40 players rank at this point, keeping in mind that 4 more rating lists will be factored in before a top two is selected. Players whose names are crossed out are NOT potential ratings qualifiers, either because they already qualified in a different manner, or else because they are the defending World Champion. (Source: https://chessnumbers.wordpress.com/world-championship-cycle-2014-2016/average-ratings/)
Players who have qualified for the Candidates Tournament so far:
Anand, Caruana, Nakamura + top 2 from 2015 World Cup in Baku (Karjakin & Svidler) + top 2 by average ratings (most likely Topalov & Giri)
The host of the Candidates Tournament can nominate a player. So if let’s say Armenia wins the bid to host, they can nominate Aronian, or Azerbaijan can nominate either Mamedyarov or Radjabov if they host it…
| Avg Rating So Far | Player | Jan | Apr | Jun | Aug | Oct (live before World Cup) | Live Rating | Projected Avg Rating |
| 2805.3 | Topalov, Veselin | 2800 | 2798 | 2798 | 2816 | 2813 | 2802.5 | 2804.8 |
| 2788.5 | Giri, Anish | 2784 | 2790 | 2773 | 2793 | 2798 | 2789.8 | 2788.7 |
| 2780.6 | Kramnik, Vladimir | 2783 | 2783 | 2783 | 2777 | 2777 | 2779.2 | 2780.4 |
| 2785.6 | Grischuk, Alexander | 2810 | 2794 | 2781 | 2771 | 2774 | 2751.9 | 2780.0 |
| 2774.9 | Aronian, Levon | 2797 | 2770 | 2780 | 2765 | 2784 | 2784.1 | 2776.4 |
Karjakin and Svidler also qualified for the Candidates Tournament by getting to the World Cup Final.
| 2757.0 | Karjakin, Sergey | 2760 | 2757 | 2753 | 2753 | 2762 | 2764.0 | 2758.2 |
| 2734.8 | Svidler, Peter | 2739 | 2734 | 2740 | 2739 | 2727 | 2739.5 | 2735.6 |