Topalov – J. Polgar
This is a very interesting situation. Topalov already won the World Championship. Will he offer a quick draw to enjoy the celebration or will he play for a win for rating points as he is inching closer toward Kasparov’s rating? He is now the third person in history to break the 2800 mark (Kasparov and Kramnik). But there is a big incentive to be #1 when Garry is still on the rating list and not after Garry’s rating disappear from the top list.
My prediction is he will play cautiously. If there is nothing there then he will take a draw.
Svidler – Anand
Svidler has White. He is more than happy tying for second. Anand will not risk much with the Black pieces. It has been a long tournament.
It will be a peaceful draw.
Morozevich – Adams
Morozevich is happy with his even score. That put him in the position to qualify for the next big event. Adams wants to get out of town as soon as possible. Morozevich has White. Don’t expect much from either. Morozevich will try a little bit but he won’t go crazy. If nothing spectacular happens, he will be content with a draw.
I expect a draw after some small fireworks.
Leko – Kasimdzhanov
This is interesting. Leko is tied with Kasimdzhanov for 5th – 6th place at -2. Kasim would be happy with a draw with the Black pieces. The question is does Leko have anything left mentally and emotionally? If he does, he will try to win to get clear 5th. If he can’t wait to get out of town then there will be no story.
I give Leko an edge. I hope he will play it out for pride. 
I expect 4 draws without fight. They are tired and we have WC, so finish this and go home.
Congratulations again for your blog, its very instructive and you are very nice person.
Bye.
That is a very sensible predition. I think that will be the most likely scenario.
Thanks 🙂
Best wishes,
Susan Polgar
http://www.PolgarChess.com
http://www.SusanPolgar.com
Great tireless coverage: thanks!
Something I am confused about: why do some people say this isn’t actually picking the ‘legitimate’ World Champion? It looks like a great system, if I understand it. The top 8 rated players in the world playing each other twice. What is the problem with this that makes people so skeptical?
How often is this Championship played? Is the next one already scheduled?
blue devil, I can name two problems right away (and there may be more):
1. These 8 people are NOT the 8 top-rated players, check the current FIDE rating list to make sure. In fact, one of the players is a long, loooong way from there. The fact that that player is the previous FIDE Champion helps but not much.
By the way, when they calculated Topalov’s ELO perfomance after every round in the first half, and it was skyrocketing with victory after victory — the mind-boggling thing happened: Topalov DEFEATED the FIDE Champion and his ELO perfomance DROPPED with that. You know why? Because before that he played only 2700+ heavyweights, and with the inclusion of 2600+ GM in this pool his rating faltered.
Now tell me: the man DEFEATS the WORLD CHAMPION, and his rating DROPS with that. Is this normal or maybe there’s something wrong with the system???
2. I’m sure you have heard the names of Steinitz, Lasker, Capablanca, Alekhine, Botvinnik… and others, you can name them just as fast as I can. Who were those people? If we accept the fact that the WC title just passed from Kasimjanov (#35 in the current FIDE rating list) to Topalov, then we have to accept the fact that the WCs before Rustam were Ponomariov, Anand and Khalifman… I have nothing against those great players, in fact I admire them all, but to compare them with my first lineup?.. Or worse, to REPLACE that lineup altogether — that’s something which does not bear thinking about.
No, the World Champions in chess started (officially) with Steinitz and went on to Kasparov and then to, much as we hate it to admit, Kramnik. Maybe bitter to some, but nevertheless the only truth.
There IS a nice solution, however — the successors of these two ‘lines’ may (or should I say ought to) play a Unification Match, with FIDE recognising the winner of that event as the only and true World Champion, bar none.
Let’s hope such an event happens.
“World champion” title has no longer any meaning in Chess. We simply have to go over to world ranking by ELO and promoting grand slam events — that is all. What is this WC title, based on one tournament? It is silly and anachronistic.
WC title matches made sense in olden days when there were not so many GMs and there were not so many tournaments..but as the no. of world classs GMs and tourneys have grown, so has the WC title matches shrunk in relevance, importance and meaningfulness.
To me, to say Topy has played like a world #1 ranked player in winning this tournament is in accord with his ELO rating and makes more sense than to say he has “become” a world champion.
of course for the die-hards hung up over “defeating-Kramnik-is-the-only-way-to-become-WC” syndrome, this would be unthinkable 🙂
Going to the tennis or even golf-type format of regularly updated world rankings and major tournaments (Linares, Biel etc.) is the way to attact major sponsorships, and avoid the ever-present risk of the WC title being undermined by a player winning the WC title, and then refusing to play anyone again, asubterfuge many WC title holders have adopted in the past.
My skeptism is based entirely on the format. The World Champion has always won a long match against one other challenger.
In this case I would love it if Svidler and Anand would play a ten game match with the winner playing Topolov in a 15 game match.
“How often is this Championship played? Is the next one already scheduled? “
Unfortuneately you have hit upon the biggest problem with the corrupt FIDE. There is NO PLAN. No continuity.
They should pick a month…..(THe first week of February….The first week of August????) and hold the World Championship match then every year or at least every two years. They should pick a time and location for picking who will be the challenger AS well.
They got lucky in SanLuis that Toplov was so overwhelming that his rating validates his legitimacy as the current world champ.
Yes, Michael. FIDE got very lucky with Topalov’s performance. Imagine a 4-way tie for first 🙂
Best wishes,
Susan Polgar
http://www.PolgarChess.com
http://www.SusanPolgar.com
I’m not sure on the tie-breaking system, but here’s my view…
Svidler-Anand will be the real battle! Both are tied on 8-5 and they are fighting for 2nd place, US$200,000 and an automatic seed into the 2nd round of the next World Championship championship cycle. This will be a fierce battle. If the game is drawn, Anand will win 2nd on tiebreaks and will pocket an extra US$60,000. Morozevich-Adams may be a quickie. “Moro” will be content to clinch the 4th position and as a result, the final qualification spot for the next championship cycle. Leko-Kasimjanov are tied at 5½-7½ and if they draw, they are even in number of wins and have drawn both of their head-to-head battles, but Kasimjanov has beaten Anand and drawn Svidler twice so it may help him in the tiebreak system. This game also has US$10,000 riding on it.
Daaim Shabazz, The Chess Drum
http://www.thechessdrum.net/
Thanks for the helpful replies: I am fairly new to chess so never have understood how FIDE works (it sounds like NOBODY understands how FIDE works and that is part of the problem).
The idea of treating it more like tennis is interesting. Also, it sounds crazy that they don’t have a championship match at regular frequency using transparent and fair decision-making mechanisms.
I understand that people think Kramnik is champion, but why didn’t he play in this tournament? Who is Kramnik and does he still play (I know he beat Kasparov a long time ago, but that isn’t enough). It seems all these great GMs are in this tournament: is ANYONE of worth besides Kramnik playing in Kasparov’s league: i.e., is it taken seriously?
Is there a good, unbiased (to the extent that it is possible) historical overview of all these crazy historical political wheelings and dealings in the chess world, especially regarding who is champion?
I found statements from Kramnik about a unification match here:
http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=2357
I also hope it happens! That would be great for chess!
FRom the link above Krmanick says
“In the agreement that was signed in Prague by, among others, FIDE and myself, it was clearly stated that the Classical World Champion, eventually determined by my final match with Peter Leko, was qualified to play a unification match against the winner of the final match for the FIDE World Championship. “
Does anyone now if this is indeed true that FIDE signed such an agreenment??
If so then FIDE should honor the agreement.