Magnus Carlsen claims he could ‘stay at the top for another 20 years’
Leonard Barden
Friday 8 May 2015 15.41 EDT
Magnus Carlsen, fresh from his latest triumph, claimed last week he could “stay at the top for another 20 years”. The world champion’s 7/9 against an elite field at Shamkir, Azerbaijan, was the closest yet that the Norwegian has approached to the near-sweeps that Alexander Alekhine in 1930, Bobby Fischer in 1971 and Garry Kasparov in 1989 achieved in their pomp.
Carlsen advanced his overall rating to 2876, only six points shy of his all-time peak. The gap to the No2, India’s Vishy Anand, has jumped to a whopping 72 points.
Yet Carlsen could be faced with a serious challenger as early as 2017. Across the border from Shamkir, in Azerbaijan’s neighbour state Armenia, the world team championship ended in victory for China, already the first Asian country to break the Western monopoly of the biennial Olympiads. China captured gold ahead of Ukraine and Armenia, while the top-seeded Russians recovered from a dreadful start but still finished only fourth.
China has no heritage of Western chess. Xiangqi and Go remain far more popular. But when state backing arrived in the 70s, China’s coaches opted to focus on the best youthful talents. This strategy was used in 1930s USSR to create a golden generation and was followed in England in the 70s and 80s.
China’s current top six, all rated above the elite 2700 level, have an average age of 22. Chinese GMs used to peak at the world top 30-50, but now Ding Liren, 22, is rated No11 and poised for the top 10.
But the real mega-talent is Wei Yi. The 15-year-old was the best individual scorer in the world teams with 7/9, jumping to No34 in the ratings. He is the youngest 2700 in chess history, inviting comparisons with the phenomenal quantum jumps made by Fischer, Kasparov and Carlsen in their mid-teens. His likely years to become a world title candidate are 2017 and 2019, but his current progress is so fast that he should not be ruled out for the 128-player World Cup at Baku this September, whose two finalists will become candidates in 2016.
Wei Yi looks deadpan, without the obvious charisma of Fischer and Kasparov at his age. His games, however, tell a different story. His style is universal, with three major strengths: wide opening knowledge, imaginative tactical flair and, like Carlsen, deep strategic vision in barren positions. He won a seemingly drawn ending at the world teams by threading his white king via midboard to g6, where it aided a mating attack.
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