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Well, I spent a bit of time on Nc6 but couldn’t squeeze anything useful out of it:
1. Nc6 Bc6 (Qc6 2.Nf6 wins queen)
2. d5 Bd5
3. Rd5 Qc2
4. Qc2 Rc2 and, at best, I judge black slightly better, but not by much.
So I took a look at Nf7, and this does look good for white. The main reason I like this move is that it sets up the possibility of a of a double pin the e6 knight:
1. Nf7 Kf7
Here, black might decline the knight, but he will have to do so with a move like Bb4 or Bf8 which I cover below. Continuing:
2. Bh3
The double pin/attack I was looking at. Black has a few ways to add an additional protection on the knight- Qd7, Bd8, Bf6, Bf8. I will cover all below, but the best move in my opinion is to draw the king back behind his pawns and just concede the knight and the coming exchange loss:
2. …..Kg8
3. Be6 Kh8
4. Bc8 Bc8
And white has won an exchange and a pawn. At move 2, black does worse, I think by trying to hold the knight:
2. …..Bf8
3. Be6! Re6
4. Ng5 Kg8 (hg5?? 5.Qe6 is mate)
5. Qe6 Kh8
6. Nf7 Kh7 and white has an exchange, a pawn, and an attack. Or
2. …..Bf6 (keeping an eye on g5)
3. Nf6 gf6 (Kf6 definitely worse)
4. Be6 Kg7
5. Bc8 Qc8
6. Re8 Qe8
7. Qe3 and white should win this whether black exchanges queens or not. Or
2. …..Bd8
3. Be6 Re6
4. Nc5! Qd6 (bc6? 5.Qe6 Kf8 6.Qe8#)
5. Ne6 Qd5
6. Qd5
Here, I might be missing something better for white, but I need to finish this quickly.
6. …..cd5
7. Nd8 Rd8 and white doubles his rooks and should win without too much drama. The last loose thread in this idea is still at move 2 for black:
2. …..Qd7
3. Nc5
Here, I initially worked on Ng5, but this is losing as the bishop takes at g5 while adding the e8 rook as coverage on the knight.
3. …..Bc5 (bc5 4.Be6 wins)
4. dc5 Qe7 (what else?)
5. Re6 Qe6
6. Be6 Re6
7. Rd7! and black will be lucky if this isn’t mate, even if he manages to lose nothing more than the bishop, or the rook!
Surely.
1.Nxf7, Kf7
2.Qxe6! is going to be the answer
2. Kex6
3.Ng5++
Now if the king goes to the d file it is mated by the Bh3/Nf7 combo
If
3 Kf6
4.Re6+ Kxg5
5.h4 Kg4 (kf5, Bh3 mate)
6.Kh2 followed by f3
White has a direct tactical shot with
1 Nxf7 Kxf7
If Black tries to protect the Knight with 1 …. Qd7, White extricates his Knight with 2 Ne5 and wins material, as 2 … Qd5 loses the Queen after 3 Nf6+
2 Bh3 Rcd8
This loses, but Black is in trouble regardless. 2 … Qd7 fails to 3 Nc5. And a passive move such as 2… Kg8 or 2 … g6 leaves Black at least the Exchange and a Pawn down after 3 Bxe6+ and Bxc8. With the move made, Black tries to avoid the loss of the Exchange.
3 Bxe6+ Kf8
4 Qf3+ Bf6
5 Nxf6 Rxe6
6 Rxe6 gxf6
Black tries to keep the loss to the Exchange, but nothing is any better, i.e. 6 … c5, 7 Qf5 Qf7 (to avoid the threat of Nd5+) 8 Rde1 Bc8, 9 Rd6! Re8 (White’s Queen and Rook are both taboo), 10 Rxe8+ winning easily.
7 Qf6+ Qf7
8 Qh6+ Kg8
8 … Qf7, 9 Qxd8+ (The computers say Qh6+ mates a move sooner) Kg7, 10 Re7 leaves White up a Queen and Rook for a Bishop.
9 Rde1!
White has many ways to win here, but there’s no hurry; Black isn’t going anywhere. There’s no pressing need to give check every turn. This move threatens Re8+ and Rh8# after the Rooks are exchanged.
9 … Rf8
9 … Qf7, 10 Qxd8+ followed by Re7 as above.
10 Qxh6
White’s new threat is 11 Rg6+ Kf7, 12 Qg7#. Black can forestall mate for a few moves by sacrificing his Queen, but nothing more can be done here.