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d7, followed by Ba6 appears to present White with some serious threats. For example:
1) d7, Bf6
2) Ba6, bxa6 [not forced, but the threat is obviously 3) Bxb7, leaving White with three connected passed pawns]
3) c6, and if Rxb6,
4) c7 will produce a White Queen.
If Black tries 1) … Rd8 instead, 2) Ba6 is even more devastating, as White again gets the three passed pawns.
1. Ba6 seems to be much more precise than 1. d7.
Eg. 1. d7 Bf6 2. Ba6 Bd8 and it is a mess
(now 3. Bxb7 Rxb7 4. c6 Rxb6 may be actually losing)
1.Ba6 e3 2.Bxb7 e2 3.Re1 Bf8 4.Rxe2 Rxb7 5.Re8 should win
1.Ba6 bxa6 2.c6 Rxb6 3.c7 wins
1. Ba6 Bxb2
2. Bxb7 Rxb7
3. d7 Bf6
4. c6 Rxd7
5.Rxd7
It’s a winning position for white
I remember watching this game while it was being played. Grischuk declined the bishop, but Carlsen played Bxb7 anyway and Grischuk resigned in a couple of moves.
And, yes, the move order matters- 1.Ba6 is much more effective than the transposition of 1.d7-2.Ba6. The move 1.d7 is one of those empty moves that actively costs white the tempo that allows black to get the bishop to d8 before white can play Bxb7 effectively:
1. d7?! Bf6!
2. Ba6 Bd8!
And now……
3. Bb7? Rb7
And white can’t play c6 since the bishop on d8 in this line effectively neutralizes the pawns on c6 and d7- black can sacrifice the bishop for the pair of them now- by first taking at c7 then d8.
Things are greatly different when white doesn’t waste the time with 1.d7……
1. Ba6!! Bf6
Here, Bf6 is the most tenacious defense, but black is a move behind now compared to the line above…..
2. Bb7! Rb7 (clearly nothing better now)
3. c6 Rb6 (if Rb8, 4.d7/c7 wins easily)
4. Rc1!
White can transpose moves 3 and 4 here, but 4.Rc1 must be played- if white pushes 4.d7, black takes at c6 and the bishop gives itself for the d-pawn at d8, and if white pushes 4.c7, black puts the rook on c6 to attack c7 and guard c8. After 4.Rc1, black has no defense but to give up the rook one way or another….
4. ……………Bd8
5. c7 and white will get a queen at c8 or d8 depending on how black defends. Or
4. ……………Rb8
5. c7 Rc8
6. d7 wins the rook.