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i suppose its a draw after 1…ne5 2.nxe5 kxe5 3.kxa5 kf4 4.kb6 kxf3 5.a5 ke2 6.a6 f4 7.a7 f3 8.a8Q f2 9.qe8+ kf3 10.qf7+ kg2 11.qg6+ kh1 12.qh5+ kg1 13.qg4+ kh1 14.qh4/h3+ kg1 15.qg3+ kh1! 16.qxf2 stalemate!
This must be impossible for black to win, difficult to hold a draw.
First I erroneously try:
1. … Ne5?
2. Nxe5 Kxe5
3. Kxa5 Kd6 (aiming a8, but too late)
3. Kb6!
white wins.
Therefore I guess black must keep knights on board and start with a K move.
1. Kd6 Kxa5
2. Kc6
Is the best I can find.
White is for ever up with a pawn, but it’s an edge pawn, and if black king is able to stay in front of it, it may be impossible for white to queen it.
If white assists his a-file plans with knight, black has a knight as well to refute those plans.
The f-file pawns may be forgotten until white attacks f5 with knight, then of course black must be able to protect it with his knight (or trade off f-file pawns).
This looks extremely difficult (many things for black to avoid at every move), but it seems possible?
Not possible to list all variations here, only priciples…
No line of attack that I could find stands out as wonderful for black. Black can try for a draw something like this, though there are other possibilities:
1… Kd5
2. Kxa5 Kd4 {Black king feigns an attack on the white knight.}
3. Nb2 Kc5 {But, really, it’s an attack on the pawn at a4.}
4. Ka6 Nd6 {White king makes space for pawn to move to a5. Black knight joins the attack on the pawn.}
5. f4 Kc6
6. Nd3 Nc4 {Black knight prevents pawn at a4 from advancing.}
7. Ka7 Kd5
8. Nb4+ Ke4 {Black king goes after the pawn at f4.}
9. Ka6 Nb2 {White king threatens attack on black knight.}
10. a5? Nc4 {Black knight threatens to take pawn, which now has no escape.}
11. Nc6 Kxf4 {Black king prepares, without real hope, to try to advance his remaining pawn.}
12. Nd4 Ke4
13. Nxf5 Kxf5 {White exchanges his knight for black’s pawn.}
14. Kb5 Nxa5 {Black exchanges his knight for white’s pawn. Draw by material.}
The actual game play between Welling and Porrasmaa, which parallels Aditya Pai’s line above but has some critical differences: 1… Ne5
2. Nxe5 Kxe5
3. Kxa5 Kf4
4. Kb4!! {Instead of Aditya’s Kb6.}
4… Kxf3
5. a5 f4
6. a6 Ke2
7. a7 f3
8. a8=Q f2
9. Qg2! {Instead of Aditya’s Qe8+.}
9… Ke1
10. Kc3 {Black resigns since mate imminent. Could Welling have forseen how this would play out when he chose Kb4!!?}